In an increasingly interconnected global landscape, regional conflicts reverberate far beyond their immediate theaters. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has drawn significant attention and resources from Western powers, particularly the United States. Simultaneously, the Middle East simmers with volatility, with actors such as Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis edging closer to war. In this turbulence, China sees opportunities to assert its dominance in the South China Sea (SCS), potentially destabilizing Southeast Asia and testing U.S. security commitments in the region.

The Middle Eastern Powder Keg

The Middle East, a region historically marked by geopolitical strife, finds itself at a critical crossroads. Since the surprise attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has escalated dramatically. The situation is further complicated by the threat posed by Hezbollah in Lebanon, backed by Iran, to Israel’s northern settlements.

Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen, also backed by Iran, have disrupted maritime traffic in the Red Sea, adding another layer of complexity to the already volatile situation. With the prospect of war seeming imminent, Israel hopes for a swift victory through a blitzkrieg, but U.S. officials foresee a protracted conflict that could bog down the region and threaten long-term peace.

In light of these escalating tensions, the U.S. has offered significant assurances to Israel. Senior U.S. officials have reassured their Israeli counterparts that if a full-scale war breaks out on Israel’s northern border with Hezbollah, the Biden administration is fully prepared to back its ally. This assurance comes amidst increasing cross-border attacks between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah, heightening fears of another full-fledged conflict in the Middle East.

However, U.S. officials have serious concerns that in the event of a full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group could overwhelm Israel’s air defenses in the north, including the Iron Dome system.

In recent meetings, U.S. and Israeli officials discussed potential “off-ramps” to de-escalate tensions along the Blue Line separating Lebanon and Israel.

The potential conflict in the Middle East also impacts U.S. strategic plans. While the U.S. has been attempting to pivot towards Asia, escalating tensions in the Middle East could hinder these efforts. The U.S. has been reshuffling its warship deployment in the region to maintain dominance, but a wider war in the Middle East could force the U.S. to focus more on this region, potentially affecting its strategic commitments elsewhere.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: A Preoccupation for the West

The conflict in Ukraine grinds on, marked by intense fighting as Ukrainian forces launch offensives to regain lost territory. Despite a recent peace summit in Switzerland, the path towards resolution remains daunting. The summit yielded a “Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework,” supported by a majority of attendees, pledging concrete steps on critical issues like nuclear threats, food security, and prisoner exchanges. However, Russia’s absence cast a long shadow, with its spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissing the talks as irrelevant.

These developments highlight the conflict’s protracted nature and the difficulty of finding a solution without all parties at the table. The United States and its NATO allies have committed billions of dollars in aid and military support to Ukraine. As of mid-2024, the U.S. has provided over $40 billion in military assistance. This substantial investment indicates a preoccupation that might detract from the U.S.’s ability to respond robustly to crises elsewhere, particularly in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific region.

The South China Sea: A Brewing Storm

As the U.S. grapples with simultaneous conflicts in Ukraine and potentially the Middle East, China perceives a strategic window to advance its interests in the South China Sea. The sea is a crucial maritime route, vital for international trade and regional economies, particularly those of Southeast Asian nations like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia. China’s aggressive territorial claims and militarization of artificial islands have long been sources of regional tension.

Recently, China has ramped up its activities, including constructing military bases on disputed islands and increasing naval patrols. The U.S. has responded with freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) to assert the principle of international waters. However, with the U.S. potentially distracted, China might escalate its activities, pushing the boundaries of its influence and testing the resolve of Southeast Asian nations and their security alliances.

Implications for Southeast Asian Nations

The potential for increased Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea (SCS) poses significant risks for Southeast Asia. Economically, the region heavily relies on the stability of maritime routes for trade. Over $3.37 trillion worth of international trade passes through the SCS annually. Any disruption, such as those potentially caused by China’s growing assertiveness, could have cascading effects on global supply chains, impacting economies already strained by the pandemic.

Security-wise, Southeast Asian nations find themselves in an increasingly precarious position. The Philippines, a key U.S. ally, has experienced direct confrontations with Chinese vessels in its own Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). In response to Chinese incursions, the Philippines has condemned China’s actions and asserted that such aggressive maneuvers will not prevent it from carrying out rotation and resupply missions to its troops in the West Philippine Sea. Philippine Former Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. called for stronger U.S. involvement back in 2021, stating, “We need the Americans. We need their presence in the South China Sea.” Today, the call for American presence in the South China Sea resonates even more powerfully, reflecting the escalating tension and the urgent need for stability in the region.

Moreover, China’s recent military exercises simulating an invasion of Taiwan have raised concerns about its intentions and the potential for escalation in the region. These exercises, which included mock missile strikes, have put Taiwan and other regional powers on high alert, highlighting the broader security implications of Chinese military assertiveness.

Similarly, Vietnam has fortified its own claims and sought closer security ties with the U.S. and other regional powers.  Its newly elected President To Lam is keen on gradually expanding security and defense relationships with the United States. The aim is to enhance collaboration in fields like cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, and combating transnational crimes. This move is a part of Vietnam’s strategic approach to maintain balanced relationships with the world’s major powers.

The web of alliances and rivalries in Southeast Asia means that any significant disruption in the South China Sea could lead to broader regional instability, with profound implications for both regional and global security.

U.S. Security Commitments: A Test of Resolve

The U.S. has long maintained a security presence in the Indo-Pacific, highlighted by its alliances with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, and its strategic partnerships with nations like Singapore and Vietnam. However, the strain of managing conflicts on multiple fronts—Ukraine, potentially the Middle East, and then in the South China Sea—could test American resolve and capability.

The U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, however, emphasizes a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” with commitments to deter aggression and maintain regional stability. Yet, a perceived or actual reduction in U.S. military presence and engagement in Southeast Asia could embolden China, altering the regional balance of power. Admiral John C. Aquilino, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, has stressed the importance of maintaining U.S. presence, stating, “The security environment is becoming more complex, and we must be prepared to respond to threats in multiple theaters” .

The viewpoint of the U.S. public towards foreign interventions is a crucial factor. Recent polls indicate a growing reluctance among Americans towards military involvement abroad. If this sentiment continues to intensify, it could influence U.S. strategic considerations. The impact of this domestic pressure on the U.S.’s determination to uphold its security commitments in the Indo-Pacific and the Arab world remains to be seen.

 China’s Strategic Calculus

China is likely to perceive the U.S.’s preoccupation with other global conflicts as an opportune moment to consolidate its position in the SCS. Beijing has historically sought to avoid direct military confrontation with the U.S., opting instead for incremental gains through strategic maneuvers. Should the U.S. appear overstretched, China might intensify its activities in the SCS, including more aggressive patrolling, establishing further military outposts, and pressuring Southeast Asian nations diplomatically and economically.

Yan Xuetong, a prominent Chinese scholar of international relations, asserts that China’s strategy aims to secure regional dominance and protect maritime interests. He advocates for enhancing “comprehensive national power” through a balanced approach: strengthening control over the SCS while avoiding direct conflict with the U.S. This strategy combines military readiness with diplomatic engagement to manage tensions without provoking a full-scale confrontation.

Diplomatic engagement plays a crucial role in China’s strategy. Beijing seeks to divide and weaken the unified stance of ASEAN countries by offering economic incentives to some while isolating more vocal opponents like Vietnam and the Philippines. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) exemplifies this, as Beijing leverages economic investments to expand its influence across Southeast Asia. Nations such as Cambodia and Laos, heavily reliant on Chinese investments, might find it challenging to oppose Chinese ambitions in the SCS. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian has reiterated China’s stance, asserting, “China has indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea islands and their adjacent waters”.

China’s diplomatic efforts are complemented by its participation in regional forums and international organizations, where it aims to shape the narrative and build support for its claims. This multifaceted approach allows China to advance its strategic objectives while managing the risks of direct confrontation. As the U.S. navigates conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, China’s opportunity to consolidate SCS claims heightens, reshaping Southeast Asia’s geopolitical dynamics.

End Note

The web of global geopolitics suggests that a wider conflict in the Middle East would have profound implications beyond its immediate vicinity, potentially destabilizing Southeast Asia and altering the strategic dynamics of the South China Sea. For Southeast Asian nations, the challenge lies in understanding this complex landscape, balancing their security needs with economic realities. For the U.S., maintaining its security commitments in the Indo-Pacific while addressing crises elsewhere will be a formidable test of its global leadership and strategic resilience. As the world watches developments in the Middle East, the stakes for Southeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region cannot be overstated.