Geo-Politics

Is the Middle East on the Edge of a Full Blown War?

A Brief

Geopolitical tensions have long plagued the Middle East, with recent developments sparking concerns of a full-scale war. Various factors, including political unrest, economic challenges, and religious and ethnic conflicts, have contributed to increased regional tensions. The Middle East is indeed edging closer to a wider regional conflict, as noted by Julian Borger, the international affairs editor at The Guardian. The struggle for regional dominance among major powers has escalated proxy warfare and exacerbated tensions, heightening the risk of conflict. Central to these tensions is the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, rooted in deep-seated historical, religious, and territorial disputes. Recent military operations, attacks and counterattacks have further inflamed the situation, raising fears that the conflict could destabilize neighboring nations. As global attention remains fixed on the Middle East, understanding the complexities of the Israel-Hamas conflict and its broader implications is paramount in assessing the region’s stability and the potential for wider conflict.

“While Rome finally collapsed at the end of the Roman Empire, all of Europe was ravaged by nearly a thousand years of strife and conflict. Unfortunately, the crisis resulting from the defeat of the Ottoman Empire so many decades ago will no doubt linger on for many many decades to come.” David Fromkin’s book “A Peace to End All Peace”

Situation in Gaza

There are important events that could lead to a full-blown war in the Middle East, and the situation in Gaza is presently a major cause of concern due to the ongoing battles in Khan Younis. The high death toll, ongoing combat in Khan Younis, US intelligence estimates of militant losses in Hamas, and the rejection of a hostage-release deal by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are the essential issues to examine. Tragically, many have lost their lives as a result of the fierce fighting in Gaza. As Israeli forces marched into western Khan Younis in Gaza’s bloodiest combat yet, Palestinian sources said that they encircled and bombed two hospitals, impeding trauma treatment for the wounded.

US intelligence indicates significant losses for Hamas. According to US intelligence, only around 20% of Hamas militants have been killed since the Israeli attack on Gaza started on October 7. These figures, which are the first since the conflict, are inadequate, despite Israel’s claim of “destroying” the Palestinian group that controlled the Gaza Strip prior to its most recent assault. When asked about Hamas’ ability to fight Israeli forces and shoot rockets “for months,” the Wall Street Journal quoted an intelligence assessment from December 2023. Israeli authorities have estimated 16,000 wounded Hamas fighters, with half of them probably not coming back to battle, according to the story.

The issue is complicated by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s rejection of a hostage-release plan. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected Hamas’s ceasefire and hostage release requests, which would have left Hamas in control of Gaza and Israel out of the fight. Such a plan reflects hardened stances and a reluctance to negotiate. This position raises concerns about escalation and the difficulty of resolving the crisis.

Houthis Attack in the Red Sea

In the Red Sea, International maritime traffic and regional stability are threatened by Houthi attacks on commercial and military boats. Houthi forces spokesman Yahya Sare said the latest launches were in “continued support and solidarity with the Palestinian people.” After Israel’s Gaza invasion, the group threatened to attack ships of Israel.

“Today 50,000 to 60,000 commercial ships move through the oceans with 5000 military ships, piracy, militant attacks, and the pollution associated with shipping are the biggest concern of the day” Admiral James Stavirid’s book “SEA POWER: THE HISTORY AND GEOPOLITICS OF THE WORLD’S OCEANS”

The Houthis are an armed political and religious group that champions Yemen’s Shia Muslim minority, the Zaidis. They declare themselves to be part of the Iranian-led “axis of resistance” against Israel, the US, and the wider West – along with armed groups such as Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement. The group emerged in the 1990s and takes its name from the movement’s late founder, Hussein al-Houthi. The current leader is Abdul Malik al-Houthi. In the early 2000s, the Houthis fought a series of rebellions against Yemen’s authoritarian, Ali Abdullah Saleh, in an attempt to win greater autonomy for the group’s homeland in the north of Yemen.

According to a senior US military officer, Iranian-backed Houthis have attacked 14 nautical and commercial vessels in the Red Sea at least 100 times in the past 30 days. In response to the strikes, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced a coalition of at least eleven nations to secure the Red Sea.

Potential Implications for Regional Maritime Security:

The marine security of the region is greatly affected by the attacks in the Red Sea. Given this waterway’s strategic importance, any disturbance to it might trigger a domino effect on international trade and energy supply. More strikes might escalate regional tensions, prompting stricter security measures and perhaps even the militarization of the Red Sea.

Vessel attacks make us wonder how susceptible marine infrastructure is and how urgent it is to work together to protect global commercial corridors. Both regional and international stakeholders are worried about the possible financial consequences of ongoing attacks on the Red Sea’s maritime traffic.

International Response and Concerns about the Houthis’ Actions:

The international community is alarmed about the Houthi Red Sea attacks. The rising violence and the risk of regional conflict have alarmed governments and international organizations. The United Nations Security Council passed resolution 2722 (2024) on January 10, 2024, denouncing the attacks by the Houthis and demanding an end to them. The resolution also reaffirmed the right to freedom of navigation and highlighted the existing arms embargo against the Houthis. China and Russia remained absent, who believed that a truce should be pursued instead of a US response that could escalate the Israel-Hamas conflict. Several US and UK lawmakers voted in favor of the measure.

Multiple governments have demanded that the Houthis end their violence in their statements. Notable among the 44 states that “condemned Houthi interference” with freedom of navigation in December 2023 were NATO and EU countries. The United Kingdom, the United States, Bahrain, Germany, and Japan were among thirteen states that released a supplementary declaration on January 3, 2024. “We will hold malign actors accountable for unlawful seizures and attacks” in the Red Sea, the government stated.

Hostage Situation and Diplomatic Efforts

The Palestinian militant group Hamas is holding a large number of captives, which is adding fuel to the fire. More recently, a number of hostages were released. However, the hostage situation is dire and painful for the families and hostages themselves. The United States, Qatar, and Egypt are among the major regional and international actors that have been actively involved in the hostage negotiations. These nations have played significant roles as mediators in the talks between the warring factions. Participation of multiple countries in the talks is indicative of the situation’s complexity and the acknowledgement of the necessity of a multilateral strategy for reaching a settlement.

With its diplomatic clout, the US has been trying to open lines of communication and even negotiate a solution. As regional powers with connections to different groups, Egypt and Qatar each bring unique viewpoints and bargaining power to the table. A peaceful resolution to the hostage crisis is of the utmost importance.

Escalation in Lebanon and Syria

The escalation in Lebanon and Syria, particularly involving Israeli airstrikes in south Lebanon and the death of Hezbollah members has threatened the peace and stability of the Middle East. In June 2023, tensions between Israel and Lebanon intensified following the erection of Hezbollah tents and amidst claims by Hezbollah that Israel was constructing a wall on the Lebanese part of Ghajar, a village divided by the UN-drawn “Blue Line,” which serves as the de facto border between Israel, Lebanon, and the Golan Heights. Ghajar, initially designated to be divided between Lebanon and Israel, had been fully occupied by Israel in 2006. The presence of Hezbollah tents inside the Shebaa Farms and the Kfar Chouba Hills, areas disputed between Israel and Lebanon, prompted Israel to lodge a complaint with the United Nations. Israeli media reported the removal of one tent by Hezbollah, although the group did not officially confirm this action.

Simultaneously, Lebanese officials raised concerns about Israel’s construction of a wall around Ghajar. Lebanon warned that Israel’s actions could lead to the annexation of the northern part of the village into the Israeli-controlled area. This situation added to the existing tensions, reflecting the complex territorial disputes and longstanding animosities in the region.

Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah in south Lebanon have shaken the entire region. On December 27, 2023, an Israeli airstrike damaged two vehicles near a Lebanese army checkpoint in south Lebanon, killing a Hezbollah member and a woman and wounding many others. An Israeli push toward targeted executions in Lebanon surfaced after more than three months of near-daily border fighting with Hezbollah fighters during the Gaza crisis.

Historically, Hezbollah has been a regional power and Iran’s partner. Israel-Hezbollah enmity has increased after one of its members died, sparking concerns about a broader conflict.

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), the peacekeeping force stationed along the border, has announced its investigation into the incidents. Describing the current situation as extremely severe, UNIFIL has issued a plea for all parties involved to refrain from any actions that might contribute to the escalation of tensions in any form.

Worsening Situation in Syria

Since the Iranian revolution in 1979, which marked the ascendance of religious hardliners to power, Iranian leaders have consistently advocated for the elimination of Israel. Iran rejects Israel’s legitimacy, viewing it as an illegitimate occupier of Muslim land. Iran’s involvement in supporting the Syrian government has expanded significantly, with the dispatch of thousands of fighters and military advisers. Israel has always been concerned about potential covert efforts by Iran to supply weapons to Syria, which pose a threat to Israel.

Meanwhile, Five IRGC members were murdered in Syria in a raid on 20^th January 2024. The loss of IRGC members has complicated regional politics. Iran vows to retaliate against Israel after the Lebanon and Syria crises. Israel has not confirmed its involvement in the assaults; therefore, its reaction is unknown. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani called the strike an attempt to promote instability in the area.

US Involvement and Tensions in Western Iraq

Twenty years after the U.S. invaded Iraq — in blinding explosions of shock and awe — American forces remain in the country in what has become a small but consistent presence to ensure a check on probable militancy. Simultaneously, six years after the war against the Islamic State, Iraq still faces significant challenges in its recovery. Over a million people remain internally displaced, 4.1 million people need humanitarian assistance, and reconstruction is projected to cost at least $88 billion. An already unstable situation has become much worse as a result of attacks on air bases by the Islamic Resistance, injuries sustained by the US and Iraqi troops at the hands of militants backed by Iran, and general deterioration in ties between the US, Iraq, and Iran. Militants backed by Iran wounded US and Iraqi forces in western Iraq, marking a major episode in the Middle East. As a result of Iran’s backing for militia groups that oppose the US occupation in Iraq, this strike is symptomatic of the long-standing proxy wars in the area. Combat casualties heighten geopolitical tensions and highlight the complex network of alliances and rivalries, both of which contribute to heightened security concerns.

An air base in western Iraq was attacked by the Islamic Resistance, an organization with apparent links to Iranian interests. On January 12, 2024, a militia backed by Iran launched rockets and ballistic missiles against the American-occupied Al Asad airbase, according to the US Central Command. The attack wounded one Iraqi soldier. The attack on the base was claimed by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. According to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the group was created in late 2023 by a number of Iraqi military groupings with ties to Iran.

Assessment of Middle East Stability

The obvious causes of instability are right there. The majority of the area is either coping with violent extremism or experiencing some kind of internal strife. The Arab Spring of 2011 has sparked violent conflicts that will, even after the fighting stops, at most, pose long-term obstacles to peace and progress. Negotiated settlement remains vague due to escalating tensions between Israel and the Palestinians, growing political obstacles on both sides and emerging military dangers posed by Iran and Hezbollah.

“We need international maritime cooperation and improved international treaties on maritime laws including regulations and more protective waters. Admiral James Stavirid’s book “SEA POWER: THE HISTORY AND GEOPOLITICS OF THE WORLD’S OCEANS”

Many of the countries in the region suffer from a combination of issues, including corrupt and self-serving elites, inadequate or nonexistent economic development, difficulties finding and keeping a job, threats to national unity and instability from growing populations, and increasing extremism.

Taken as a whole, the lack of a straightforward method to estimate or forecast the degree of stability in any particular nation, much alone the area, becomes abundantly evident. If we try to generalize about the Arab world or the MENA region based on a single set of characteristics—which vary considerably even between nearby countries—we will miss the big picture. There are just too many variables at play here.

Additionally, as history has shown all too clearly, stability or instability can shift in an instant due to the acts of a specific figure or leader, interpersonal conflicts or capacities for cooperation, the missteps or interactions of specific players, interference from outside sources, the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of crisis management or warfare, and attention-grabbing catalytic events.

End Note

To conclude, the Middle East is at a crossroads, flirting with conflict, as of 2024. Multiple geopolitical, historical, and socioeconomic forces are straining the region’s stability. Escalating war in Gaza, attacks in western Iraq, and the attack on transit ships in the Red Sea have raised tensions and instability. Hamas hostages, the Israel-Hamas conflict, Red Sea Houthi attacks, and other regional developments have produced a fragile web of interconnected problems. All of these incidents have exacerbated rivalries and strained diplomatic relations, raising concerns about a wider and more catastrophic conflict. Events are shaped by regional powers like the US, Iran, and Israel. Foreign parties like Qatar, Egypt, and international organizations demonstrate the region’s instability’s global impact. Traditional tensions and unresolved grudges worsen the situation and could lead to war. The region’s history of rising tensions and outright confrontations makes each episode a potential ignition point for further conflict. Collaboration to address conflict’s root causes, promote understanding, and promote sustainable peace has never been more important for the international community. Despite the hurdles, diplomatic interventions can prevent a full-scale war in the Middle East. The global community must act quickly and decisively to avoid a regional disaster.

Analysis

How Lumbia Air Base in Cagayan de Oro is Important for the Philippines?

In the heart of Northern Mindanao, where strategic interests and regional security converge, lies a key installation often overshadowed by its more famous counterparts—Lumbia Air Base. This seemingly unremarkable airstrip has quietly evolved from its modest beginnings into a crucial hub for military operations in Mindanao. As tensions and conflicts shape the landscape of the region, the significance of Lumbia Air Base becomes increasingly apparent. What makes this base so essential, and how does its history and strategic location contribute to its current role? Let us dive into the story of Lumbia Air Base to uncover its vital role in the ever-changing dynamics of regional security.

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A Brief

Even though Lumbia Air Base was first built as a civilian airfield, it has changed significantly over time. It was repurposed to fit military purposes. This change was a component of a larger initiative to expand the Philippine military’s operational reach and capabilities in the area.
Strategically situated in Northern Mindanao, Lumbia Air Base is situated near Cagayan de Oro, Misamis Oriental. This facility’s central location within the Mindanao area makes it essential for coordinating military activities throughout the region. The facility is a vital tool for the Philippine military in preserving regional peace and stability because of its strategic location, which enables it to efficiently support both defensive and logistical operations.

Historical Background

Lumbia Air Base, originally established during the American occupation of the Philippines in the early 1940s, has a storied history. The airfield, initially known as Lumbia Airfield, was constructed to support regional aviation needs. During World War II, it played a significant role in various military operations, and provided crucial logistical support in the region.

After the war, Lumbia underwent extensive reconstruction and modernization. These efforts were aimed at upgrading its facilities and expanding its capabilities. By the late 1950s and early 1960s, the airfield transitioned from its initial civilian role to become a dedicated military air base.

Strategic Importance

As the operational headquarters for the 15th Strike Wing of the Philippine Air Force, Lumbia Air Base plays a crucial role in the military landscape of the Philippines. In order to sustain both regional stability and national security, this wing is responsible for providing tactical and ground air support throughout the nation. The presence of the 15th Strike Wing in Lumbia, which is based at the Danilo Atienza Air Base at Sangley Point, Cavite, greatly expands the Philippine Air Force’s operational reach and efficacy.

The significance of the site is further highlighted by the April 28, 2014, signing of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). By permitting the rotational presence of American troops in “agreed locations” around the Philippines, this agreement was intended to strengthen security cooperation between the United States and the Philippines. Lumbia Air Base was named as one of the principal locations for US military operations under EDCA. This partnership has been strengthened by recent advances, despite some implementation delays and difficulties. The Philippines and the United States expanded the EDCA to encompass more sites in 2023, which is noteworthy since it improved their combined military capability and strategic placement.

Recent cooperative efforts and joint exercises under EDCA have brought the base’s strategic importance to light. For example, the 2024 Balikatan military exercises featured over 16,000 participants from the United States, the Philippines, and allies, demonstrating cutting edge interoperability and training.

Current Operations and Facilities

Lumbia Air Base, a crucial component of the Philippine Air Force (PAF) network, boasts an exceptional runway and airfield capable of supporting a wide array of military activities. Once serving civilian flights until 2013, it now operates solely for military purposes, signifying its strategic significance. Ongoing renovations and expansions of the runway are set to accommodate more aircraft and boost operational capabilities. These improvements align with broader modernization efforts under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the United States, addressing growing regional security demands, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.

The 15th Strike Wing, stationed at Lumbia Air Base, plays a pivotal role in both regional security and national defense. On May 17, 2024, the Philippine Air Force welcomed the final two of six Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) T-129 ‘Atak’ helicopters, tail numbers 1505 and 1506, at Major Danilo Atienza Air Base in Cavite. This acquisition, part of the Horizon 2 phase of the AFP Modernization Program, stems from a $269 million government-to-government agreement with Turkey.

Renowned for their versatility in various operational conditions, the T-129 ‘Atak’ helicopters are expected to significantly enhance the air force’s capabilities in urban warfare, aerial reconnaissance, and counter-insurgency operations. These twin-engine helicopters come equipped with advanced fire support technologies, precise weaponry, and state-of-the-art observation and targeting systems. Following technical checks completed upon their arrival in the Philippines on November 29, 2023, the helicopters were officially commissioned in May 2024.

These developments underscore the Philippines’ commitment to bolstering national defense and enhancing interoperability with allied forces. The ongoing infrastructure upgrades at Lumbia Air Base reflect a strategic focus on defending territorial claims and improving defense readiness, particularly in response to rising tensions in the South China Sea and surrounding regions.

Geopolitical Context

The security issues in Mindanao are critical given the geopolitical setting of the Philippines. Insurgency and terrorism continue to pose serious risks to the region. The Marawi Siege in 2017, which witnessed fierce urban combat between militants connected with the Islamic State (IS) and Philippine government troops, is one of the noteworthy instances involving the IS’s increased activity.

As of 2024, the Philippine government continues to place a high priority on counterterrorism and counterinsurgency efforts. The Philippine Armed Forces (AFP) are still carrying out massive operations to break up terrorist networks and put an end to insurgency.

The Philippines has increased its collaboration with both regional and international partners in response to these threats. The country’s counterterrorism and counterinsurgency capabilities have been strengthened thanks in large part to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the United States. The United States offers training, intelligence sharing, and logistical support, all of which greatly improve the AFP’s operational efficacy.

The Philippines’ connections and alliances are vital in determining security dynamics in the region. In order to handle cross-border security challenges and improve regional stability, cooperation with ASEAN has been essential. By giving member states a forum to exchange intelligence and coordinate responses to extremist threats, the ASEAN regional framework promotes cooperation on counterterrorism initiatives and disaster relief efforts.

Beyond ASEAN, the Philippines interact with other international allies. The nation’s strategic alliances with countries like the United States, Australia, and Japan reinforce a wider security net that upholds peace and stability in the area.

Future Prospects

The strategic aims and regional aspirations of the Philippines position it for notable gains in both military prowess and infrastructure.

The nation is concentrating on significant infrastructure expansions and upgrades in 2024 as part of a larger economic and security plan. The construction of military facilities and transportation networks are important initiatives that will improve both the defense and civilian infrastructure. It is anticipated that the new $6 billion infrastructure investment plan will improve connectivity and update vital transportation linkages, promoting economic expansion and strategic mobility.

Through the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), the Philippines is looking into possibilities for a larger U.S. military deployment. This entails increasing the number of cooperative training and exercise sessions as well as possibly enhancing the infrastructure to accommodate a greater number of US soldiers. Notably, the expanding strategic alliance between the United States and the Philippines is reflected in the joint drills, which have been expanded to incorporate more difficult scenarios near contentious locations like the South China Sea. Training sessions like the Balikatan drills, which assessed tactical integration and endurance, demonstrate the continuous dedication to enhancing defense capabilities.

The Philippines’ developing strategic posture is intimately linked to its long-term objectives for maintaining regional stability. The nation seeks to manage its complex relationships with its neighbors, especially China, while enhancing its defense capabilities and regional influence. The Philippines is attempting to strike a balance between its security requirements and diplomatic commitments while tensions in the South China Sea continue. Enhancing defense readiness and taking part in regional security frameworks are part of the strategic aim to guarantee a stable and secure marine environment.

Furthermore, the Philippines is dedicated to maintaining a balance in its relations with its neighbors by participating in multilateral agreements and strategic alliances. The necessity of regional cooperation in accomplishing sustainable development goals and upholding peace is emphasized in the UN Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework for 2024–2028. The strategic perspective of the Philippines involves utilizing these global alliances to advance stability and proficiently handle crises within the region.

End Point

Lumbia Air Base exemplifies the Philippines’ strategic approach to increase its defense infrastructure and regional security, with its sophisticated runway and airfield playing a critical role in military operations. The ongoing modernization initiatives, driven by the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States, reflect the nation’s commitment to strengthening its defense posture and operational readiness. Looking ahead, the future of Lumbia Air Base and the Philippines’ broader defense strategy will be shaped by evolving regional dynamics and strategic alliances, with a continued emphasis on infrastructure development and enhanced military cooperation with international partners, solidifying the Philippines’ position in the Indo-Pacific region.

Analysis

Does China Claim Malaysia’s Luconia Shoals?

China and Malaysia’s historical interactions stretch back to the ancient maritime Silk Road, with the Malacca Sultanate establishing early diplomatic and trade relations with the Ming Dynasty in the 15th century. The formal diplomatic relationship between the two nations was established in 1974, marking a significant step in their modern partnership. This relationship has evolved into a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, emphasizing economic, political, and cultural cooperation. However, tensions remain, particularly over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. China’s expansive claims, represented by the controversial nine-dash line, include areas such as the Luconia Shoals, which fall within Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone. Despite these disputes, both countries strive to manage their differences through diplomacy while safeguarding their respective national interests.

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China Malaysia Ties: An Overview

The relationship between China and Malaysia has deep historical roots, extending back centuries through early trade and cultural exchanges. Chinese records from the 5th and 6th centuries AD mention the presence of Malay sailors in China, signifying the long-standing interactions between the two regions. During the Ming Dynasty, the Sultanate of Malacca established close political and economic ties with China, benefiting from the Ming dynasty’s protection. These early interactions laid the foundation for the modern diplomatic relations that were formally established in May 1974. After the Cold War, ties between China and Malaysia strengthened significantly, especially after the Communist Party of Malaya ended its insurgency in 1989.

Economically, China and Malaysia share a robust partnership. Since 2009, China has been Malaysia’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching US$98.90 billion in 2023. Malaysia is also a key participant in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with notable projects like the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) and the Malaysia-China Kuantan Industrial Park reflecting their strong economic ties. Malaysia, exports a variety of goods to China, including palm oil, electronics, and natural gas, highlighting the interconnected nature of their economies. In 2024, the two countries renewed a five-year economic cooperation agreement, focusing on trade, investment, agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure, and financial services, further solidifying their partnership.

Politically, China and Malaysia maintain a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, established in 2013, which emphasizes mutual respect and understanding. Frequent high-level visits have reinforced diplomatic ties, such as Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Malaysia in 2024, which resulted in a joint statement and several memoranda of understanding (MOUs). However, despite their close cooperation, tensions occasionally arise due to overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea. While these disputes have caused friction, both countries remain committed to resolving issues through bilateral discussions.

Culturally, Malaysia’s significant Chinese diaspora, the second-largest in the world, has played a key role in shaping the nation’s social and cultural fabric. Educational and cultural exchanges between the two nations are also robust, with programs fostering greater understanding and collaboration. Malaysia’s large Chinese community significantly contributes to the country’s cultural landscape, while educational programs encourage mutual understanding. Many Malaysian students pursue higher education in China, and numerous Chinese students study in Malaysia, creating valuable people-to-people ties.

Diplomatically, China and Malaysia have maintained a stable and cooperative relationship, working together on regional and international issues. Both countries are actively involved in trade agreements and infrastructure projects, particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Malaysia has benefited from increased connectivity and infrastructure development through its involvement in the BRI, demonstrating the strategic nature of its relationship with China.

Despite the strong ties, tensions over the South China Sea continue to pose challenges. China’s claims, based on the “nine-dash line,” overlap with Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), leading to disputes over maritime boundaries and resource exploration. These disagreements have occasionally strained relations but have not derailed overall cooperation.

Recent developments in the South China Sea have brought the issue to the forefront. Malaysia continues its oil and gas exploration activities in the region despite objections from China. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has reaffirmed Malaysia’s stance, emphasizing that these activities are within its waters and are crucial for the country’s economic interests. China has protested these activities through diplomatic notes, but Malaysia remains firm, citing its sovereign rights and adherence to international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

A recent leak of a classified diplomatic note from China, which warned Malaysia to halt its oil drilling activities, has further strained relations. Despite this, both countries have committed to resolving the dispute peacefully, emphasizing the importance of maintaining their broader relationship.

Does China Claim Luconia Shoal?

The Luconia Shoals, also known as the Luconia Reefs, are situated approximately 100 kilometers off the coast of Sarawak, Malaysia, within Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The shoals are part of a larger reef complex in the South China Sea and are sometimes considered the southernmost part of the Spratly Islands.

These shoals hold significant strategic importance due to their rich marine biodiversity and potential underwater resources, such as oil and natural gas. This makes the area valuable for both economic and strategic reasons.

China claims the Luconia Shoals as part of its broader claim over the South China Sea, delineated by the “nine-dash line.” This line encompasses nearly the entire South China Sea, including regions that fall within the EEZs of other countries, such as Malaysia.

Recent developments have intensified tensions in the region. China has repeatedly protested Malaysia’s oil and gas exploration activities in the Luconia Shoals. A recent incident involved a leaked Chinese diplomatic note urging Malaysia to cease its exploration activities, asserting that they infringe on Chinese sovereignty. Additionally, China has increased its military presence in the area, exemplified by the deployment of 16 military aircraft near the Luconia Shoals in 2021, prompting Malaysia to scramble fighter jets in response. The Chinese Coast Guard has also maintained a near-constant patrol around the shoals, signaling China’s intent to assert control over the region without establishing a physical occupation.

In response, Malaysia has consistently asserted that its activities in the Luconia Shoals are within its sovereign rights and comply with international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has emphasized that Malaysia will persist with its exploration activities and will not yield to China’s demands.

What is China’s nine dash line claim?

China’s “nine-dash line” claim asserts sovereignty over a substantial portion of the South China Sea, represented by a U-shaped line that encompasses approximately 90% of the region. This claim stretches as far as 2,000 kilometers from the Chinese mainland, extending close to the shores of several Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei.

The origins of the nine-dash line date back to 1947 when the Republic of China published maps featuring eleven dashes. After the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the number of dashes was revised to nine. China bases its claim on historical usage, asserting that Chinese fishermen and traders have utilized these waters for centuries.

The nine-dash line is highly controversial and has been the subject of significant international disputes. A key point of contention is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which defines territorial waters, exclusive economic zones (EEZs), and continental shelves. Many countries argue that China’s claim violates UNCLOS by overlapping with their EEZs and territorial waters. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines, declaring that China’s claims have no legal basis under international law. China rejected this ruling, straightaway.

The claim has led to heightened tensions and confrontations in the South China Sea, involving not only the claimant states but also external powers like the United States. The U.S. conducts freedom of navigation operations in the region to challenge China’s claims.

China’s Classified diplomatic note to Malaysia over oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea

A recently leaked classified diplomatic note from China to Malaysia has revealed Beijing’s strong opposition to Malaysia’s oil and gas exploration activities in the South China Sea. In the note, China accused Malaysia of encroaching on areas covered by its controversial 10-dash line map, which claims nearly the entire South China Sea. The document specifically referenced Malaysia’s activities near the Luconia Shoals, located close to the Malaysian state of Sarawak.

In response, Malaysia has firmly stated that it will not yield to China’s demands and will continue its exploration efforts, maintaining that these activities are taking place within its own waters. The Malaysian government has also called for an investigation into the leak of the classified document. This signifies the complex territorial disputes in the South China Sea, where multiple countries, including Malaysia, have overlapping claims with China.

Will Malaysia continue South China Sea exploration?

On September 5, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim affirmed that Malaysia will continue its oil and gas exploration activities in the South China Sea, despite a recently leaked diplomatic document revealing opposition from Beijing. Anwar emphasized that Malaysia’s exploration efforts are well within its own waters and that both countries would address the issue through amicable discussions.

Malaysia’s state-run oil company, Petronas, operates oil and gas fields within the country’s exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. Despite an international court ruling that dismissed China’s claim as having no legal basis, Beijing continues to assert ownership over almost the entire South China Sea, a vital region for global trade and economic resources.

In a press conference broadcast live on Malaysian television, Anwar reiterated that Malaysia’s actions were neither provocative nor hostile. He described China as a “great friend” but made it clear that Malaysia must continue to secure its economic interests, which include oil drilling within its territorial waters. He stressed that halting exploration activities would not be an option, as they are crucial to Malaysia’s economic survival.

The controversy stems from a leaked diplomatic note, reportedly published by the Philippine news outlet Inquirer.net, in which China demanded that Malaysia stop its oil and gas activities near the state of Sarawak on Borneo island. While Malaysia’s foreign ministry has launched an investigation into the leak, it has not denied the authenticity of the document.

Anwar expressed openness to dialogue with China to resolve the matter, highlighting that any disputes should not undermine the strong bilateral relationship between the two nations. He also pointed out that continued engagement is necessary, but this does not mean Malaysia will stop its exploration activities.

The South China Sea has become a regional flashpoint, with frequent confrontations between China and other claimant countries like the Philippines. Analysts fear that rising tensions in the area could potentially involve larger powers, such as the United States, due to mutual defense treaties with regional allies like the Philippines.

What are challenges, roadblocks, and the Way ahead?

The relationship between China and Malaysia has deep historical roots, dating back centuries through trade and cultural exchanges. Chinese records from the 5th and 6th centuries mention Malay sailors in China, highlighting the long-standing connections between the two regions. During the Ming Dynasty, the Sultanate of Malacca established close ties with China, benefiting from the protection of the Ming court. These early interactions laid the groundwork for modern diplomatic relations, formally established in May 1974. In the post-Cold War period, ties between the two nations strengthened significantly, especially after the end of the Communist Party of Malaya’s insurgency in 1989.

Economically, China and Malaysia have developed a robust partnership. Since 2009, China has been Malaysia’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching RM450.84 billion (US$98.90 billion) in 2023. Malaysia plays a key role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with major projects like the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) and the Malaysia-China Kuantan Industrial Park reflecting their strong economic cooperation. In 2024, the two countries renewed a five-year economic cooperation agreement that focuses on trade, investment, agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure, and financial services, further solidifying their economic ties.

Politically, China and Malaysia maintain a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, established in 2013, based on mutual respect and understanding. Frequent high-level visits, such as Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Malaysia in 2024, have strengthened diplomatic ties. However, despite close cooperation, tensions arise due to overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea. While these disputes have caused friction, both countries remain committed to resolving issues through bilateral discussions.

Culturally, Malaysia’s significant Chinese diaspora has played an essential role in shaping the nation’s social and cultural fabric. Educational and cultural exchanges between the two nations are strong, with programs that foster greater understanding and collaboration. Many Malaysian students study in China, and vice versa, enhancing people-to-people connections and mutual understanding. However, while economic ties between China and Malaysia are strong, challenges persist. Malaysia seeks to balance its economic dependence on China with its national interests and sovereignty, especially regarding the South China Sea dispute. The evolving geopolitical landscape in Southeast Asia, influenced by other major powers, presents additional challenges and opportunities for both countries.

China’s “nine-dash line” claim asserts sovereignty over a substantial portion of the South China Sea, a region rich in natural resources and strategic shipping lanes. The claim, represented by a U-shaped line, encompasses about 90% of the sea, extending close to the shores of Southeast Asian nations like Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. The origins of this claim date back to 1947 when the Republic of China published maps with eleven dashes. After the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the number of dashes was reduced to nine. China bases its claim on historical usage, asserting that Chinese fishermen and traders have used these waters for centuries.

The nine-dash line is highly controversial and has led to significant international disputes. A major point of contention is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which defines territorial waters and exclusive economic zones (EEZs). Many countries argue that China’s claim violates UNCLOS by overlapping with their EEZs. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines, stating that China’s claims had no legal basis under international law. Despite the ruling, China has continued to assert its claims.

China has protested Malaysia’s oil and gas exploration activities in the Luconia Shoals, leading to diplomatic tensions. In one recent incident, a leaked Chinese diplomatic note urged Malaysia to halt its exploration activities, claiming they infringed on Chinese sovereignty. China has also increased its military presence in the area, including sending 16 military aircraft near the shoals in 2021, which led Malaysia to scramble its fighter jets. Despite these protests, Malaysia has consistently maintained that its activities in the area are within its sovereign rights under international law, specifically UNCLOS. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has affirmed that Malaysia will continue its exploration activities, refusing to yield to China’s demands.

End Note

In essence, while China and Malaysia share deep-rooted historical, economic, and cultural ties, their relationship faces ongoing challenges, particularly concerning territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The contested claims, especially over areas like the Luconia Shoals, highlight the tension between China’s expansive nine-dash line and Malaysia’s sovereign rights under international law. Despite these disputes, both nations continue to engage in diplomatic efforts, emphasizing dialogue and cooperation, even as Malaysia remains resolute in pursuing its oil and gas exploration activities critical to its economic interests. The evolving geopolitical dynamics in the region will continue to shape the future of this relationship.

Analysis

Malaysia to Investigate Leaked Classified Chinese Note on South China Sea Dispute

Malaysia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has launched an internal probe into the leak of a classified diplomatic note sent by China concerning oil exploration activities in the South China Sea. The move follows an article published by the Philippine Daily Inquirer on August 29, which detailed the contents of the confidential communication. The Malaysian government expressed grave concern over the breach, as the document constitutes an official communication channel between Beijing and Kuala Lumpur.

Table of Contents

Background

In February 2024, China sent a classified diplomatic note to Malaysia, expressing concerns over Malaysia’s oil and gas exploration activities in the South China Sea. This note was leaked by the Philippine Daily Inquirer on August 29, 2024, drawing attention to ongoing regional tensions. The focus of China’s concern was Malaysia’s exploration near the Luconia Shoals, an area situated roughly 100 kilometers off the Malaysian state of Sarawak. While Malaysia asserts its rights to this region, China claims the area under its controversial nine-dash line, which covers nearly the entire South China Sea.

The diplomatic note highlights China’s longstanding claim over the South China Sea and highlights Beijing’s opposition to Malaysia’s exploration activities. According to the document, these activities infringe upon China’s territorial claims, and the note urges Malaysia to halt its operations immediately. This is not the first time such concerns have been raised, but the leak has brought the issue into sharper focus, putting additional strain on the diplomatic relations between the two nations.

Malaysia’s response to the leak has been swift. The country’s Foreign Ministry has initiated a police investigation into how the document was made public and launched an internal probe. Malaysia’s stance remains firm, with officials emphasizing that the country will continue to protect its sovereignty and pursue its interests in its maritime areas, in accordance with international law, specifically the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim further reinforced this position, stating that Malaysia will persist with its oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea despite the concerns raised by China. This development reflects the broader regional dynamics, as Malaysia, along with the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan, all have overlapping claims in the South China Sea, making the area a significant flashpoint for international relations.

Recent Developments

The leaked diplomatic note highlights the sensitive and contentious nature of the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. It also sheds light on the careful balancing act Malaysia is attempting, as it seeks to assert its rights in the region while managing its diplomatic ties with China.

In its statement released on Wednesday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed it is conducting an internal investigation and will be filing a police report to further scrutinize the incident. While the ministry refrained from naming the Philippine media outlet or verifying the authenticity of the note, it emphasized the need for swift action to prevent further leaks of classified materials.

Malaysia Urged to Halt All activities in the South China Sea by China

The note in question reportedly urged Malaysia to halt all oil exploration and drilling operations in the Luconia Shoals, a resource-rich area located about 100 kilometers off the coast of Sarawak. According to the Inquirer, China claimed that Malaysia’s activities in the region violated its sovereignty under the controversial nine-dash line. China’s nearest landmass, Hainan Island, is situated approximately 1,300 kilometers from the disputed shoals.

The South China Sea dispute involves competing claims from multiple nations, including Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan. China claims nearly the entire sea based on historical maps, despite a 2016 international arbitration ruling that dismissed the nine-dash line as legally baseless. Malaysia, while sharing strong economic ties with China, has now become entangled in the broader geopolitical tensions over control of these vital waters.

Malaysia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reaffirmed its stance on the South China Sea, pledging to defend its sovereignty and interests in accordance with international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The ministry noted that while Malaysia seeks peaceful resolution through dialogue, the country will remain firm in protecting its maritime rights.

Beijing has not commented on the leaked note. However, diplomatic tensions have flared in recent months, with China’s aggressive presence in the South China Sea leading to repeated confrontations, especially with the Philippines. Just this year, multiple stand-offs occurred between Chinese and Philippine coastguards near Second Thomas Shoal.

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has maintained a more diplomatic approach toward Beijing, stressing the importance of balancing national interests with regional stability. However, the leak has raised concerns about Malaysia’s ability to maintain this balancing act amid increasing pressure from China. Anwar has acknowledged China’s concerns over Malaysia’s energy activities but remains open to negotiations on resolving maritime disputes.

This incident marks the second time in recent months that China’s activities in the South China Sea have drawn public attention in Malaysia. Earlier this year, a standoff between Malaysian state oil company Petronas and Chinese vessels occurred near the same contested waters. Chinese survey ships have increasingly patrolled the area, challenging Malaysia’s economic activities within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Despite these challenges, Malaysia’s foreign ministry highlighted that Kuala Lumpur and Beijing have committed to handling the South China Sea dispute diplomatically. Both nations co-chair discussions within the ASEAN framework aimed at reaching a Code of Conduct (COC) for the region, with negotiations expected to finalize in the coming years.

China’s claims over the South China Sea are based on the nine-dash line, a boundary dating back to 1947. However, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in 2016 that this claim had no merit under international law, siding with the Philippines. China has disregarded the ruling, continuing to assert its claims through military and diplomatic means.

Malaysia’s role in the dispute is further complicated by its reliance on China as its largest trading partner. Since 2009, bilateral relations between the two nations have strengthened, even as Malaysia faced pressure from the international community to stand firm against Chinese encroachment on its EEZ.

The Luconia Shoals, where the recent conflict has surfaced, are located within Malaysia’s EEZ, recognized by UNCLOS. However, China’s claim extends beyond its geographic proximity, relying on historical maps to justify its territorial ambitions in the South China Sea.

While the dispute escalates, Malaysia’s foreign ministry reiterated that its focus remains on diplomatic engagement. The government has called on all nations involved to respect the principles of peaceful negotiation and avoid any actions that could lead to violence or further escalation in the region.

End Note

The leak of China’s diplomatic note adds complexity to Malaysia’s foreign policy strategy, as it seeks to maintain both economic ties with China and its sovereign rights in the contested waters. Analysts believe that Malaysia’s next steps will be closely watched, both by regional partners and global powers like the United States.

Malaysia remains engaged in ASEAN-led efforts to establish a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea, aimed at reducing tensions and fostering long-term peace.

The investigation into the leak is ongoing, with the Malaysian government prioritizing both national security and diplomatic engagement with China. As tensions persist, Malaysia faces the challenge of navigating its position in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.