Geo-Politics
How Do Major Powers Perceive the South China sea tensions?
Introduction
Imagine the South China Sea as a modern-day amphitheater where the dramas of history, power, and diplomacy unfold on a global stage. This vast maritime expanse, steeped in centuries of territorial disputes and navigational heritage, has become a focal point of contemporary geopolitical debates. From ancient maritime trade routes that connected empires to present-day clashes over sovereignty and strategic interests, the South China Sea encapsulates the complexities of our interconnected world. Today, as China asserts historical claims through modern means, neighboring nations, major global powers like the United States, and international institutions scrutinize China’s ambitions. This deep analysis will explore the multifaceted perspectives surrounding the South China Sea issue, shedding light on its significance for global security, trade, and the evolving norms of international relations.
China’s Expanding Influence
China’s evolving posture in the South China Sea, marked by heightened assertiveness over territorial claims and maritime rights, has challenged the existing status quo and intensified friction among rival claimant states. This assertiveness is particularly notable in contrast to the reactions of other ASEAN claimants like Vietnam and the Philippines.
The strategic interests driving China’s actions in the South China Sea are deeply intertwined with economic, energy, and national security concerns. China’s rapid economic growth has heightened its energy demand, making energy security a top priority. As the world’s largest oil importer, China seeks to secure its energy supplies by diversifying routes and reducing dependence on traditional channels like the Strait of Malacca. Control over the South China Sea plays a crucial role in this strategy, enabling China to safeguard vital sea routes and assert dominance over the region’s energy resources.
China’s sovereignty claims in the South China Sea are grounded in historical perspectives, including the ‘Dash line’ doctrine, symbolizing expansive claims over the area. Despite international skepticism, China has consolidated control through measures like fishing bans, patrols, and construction activities on disputed islands. These actions, combined with China’s strategic investments and military presence, have triggered reactions from neighboring countries and drawn scrutiny from global powers like the United States. Geopolitically, the South China Sea has become a focal point of rivalry between China and the U.S., with both countries seeking to assert influence and advance their strategic agendas.
China’s efforts to establish control over the South China Sea are seen by major powers as part of a broader challenge to the established international order. From China’s perspective, the U.S. military presence in East Asia is perceived as a containment strategy, prompting China to assert sovereignty to limit American power projection and consolidate its own regional influence. As China’s economic and military ascendancy continues, its pursuit of core national interests in the South China Sea will remain a defining feature of regional dynamics, shaping international relations and global stability.
European Union’s Position
Examining the European Union’s (EU) perspective on the South China Sea issue reveals the region’s importance for the EU’s economic prosperity, diplomatic standing, and adherence to core normative values. The South China Sea constitutes one of the world’s busiest sea lanes, crucial for global supply chains. As reported by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, over one-fifth of global trade transited through these waters in 2016 and continues to do so today. Additionally, the South China Sea holds extensive marine and hydrocarbon resources, essential for both regional and global interests.
The positioning of the South China Sea as a “strategic flashpoint” presents potential conflicts involving claimant countries and major global powers like China and the United States. This directly impacts the EU, which heavily relies on stable sea lanes for its trade, encompassing goods such as cars, machinery, and luxury items. Instability in this region poses a serious threat to supply chains, carrying economic implications that both the EU and its Southeast Asian counterpart ASEAN cannot afford.
Prominent EU members like Germany, France, and the Netherlands have substantial strategic and economic interests in Southeast Asia, particularly in major regional economies such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. Beyond economic concerns, the EU upholds normative values, advocating for a rules-based international order anchored in international laws like the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). China’s unilateral actions in the South China Sea, including the construction and militarization of artificial islands, challenge these fundamental values, is endangering the global liberal international order.
The EU’s Indo-Pacific Strategy aligns with ASEAN’s Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, emphasizing “ASEAN centrality.” This strategic partnership between the EU and ASEAN, established in 2020 and furthered by summit-level dialogues, presents opportunities for cooperation. The EU is an active participant in the Regional Forums, demonstrating its commitment to multilateralism and consultation processes aimed at addressing global challenges.
Both the EU’s Maritime Security Strategy and the ASEAN Maritime Outlook highlight the significance of international maritime law, particularly UNCLOS. Maritime capacity building stands as a shared priority, with the EU and ASEAN focused on enhancing maritime capabilities through education, training, and technical assistance.
The recent adoption of the Treaty of the High Seas by the U.N. represents a notable achievement for the EU and its member states, establishing a legal framework for the protection and utilization of maritime resources globally. This milestone is expected to enhance cooperation between the EU and ASEAN in shaping the Indo-Pacific region, reflecting the EU’s commitment to upholding international norms and addressing challenges posed by the recent flaring developments in the South China Sea.
India’s defence policy viz a viz South China Sea
India’s defense policy, particularly its maritime strategy, is increasingly viewed through the lens of major powers’ perceptions of the South China Sea issue. Traditionally focused on land borders with Pakistan and China, India’s evolving global ambitions are now prominently displayed through its naval capabilities in international waters. Notably, India actively engages in anti-piracy patrols and deploys naval assets near the Red Sea during conflicts, such as Israel’s war with Hamas, highlight its proactive stance in international maritime security. In light of disruptions caused by Yemen-based Houthi rebels targeting ships, India’s swift deployment of guided missile destroyers and reconnaissance aircraft highlighted its role as a contributor to international maritime stability.
India’s naval initiatives also serve as a strategic signal to counter China’s expanding maritime presence in the Indian Ocean, driven primarily by energy supply considerations. With China boasting the world’s largest navy, India closely observe Beijing’s deepening engagements in neighboring countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives through infrastructure deals. Instances such as the Maldives allowing a Chinese research ship to dock and similar port calls in Sri Lanka raise concerns, prompting India to enhance its maritime capabilities in response to China’s growing naval influence in the region.
India’s participation in the Quad—a strategic alliance with the United States, Australia, and Japan—aims to counter China’s assertiveness, particularly in the South China Sea and broader Indo-Pacific arena. This alliance signifies shared concerns over China’s maritime activities and territorial claims, further emphasizing India’s pivotal role in the regional security calculus.
Furthermore, India’s deepening defense ties with Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia, support for the Philippines in South China Sea disputes, and arms contracts with Vietnam are crucial efforts to counterbalance China’s influence. Major powers closely monitor India’s strategic engagements, noting shifts from emphasizing soft power to becoming a reliable security and strategic partner in Southeast Asia. This evolving role, epitomized by engagements such as the ASEAN-India Maritime Exercise, signals India’s proactive approach in strengthening regional security against the concerns regarding the South China Sea issue.
Russia’s Viewpoint
Russia’s approach to the South China Sea issue is characterized by a balancing act, particularly concerning its energy stakes and broader political standing in the region. Over the past decade, Russia’s energy cooperation with China has significantly strengthened, reflecting its strategic imperative to diversify energy exports beyond Europe, where political tensions and resource depletion pose challenges. Exporting energy to the Asia-Pacific market, including China, has become a priority for Russia due to the critical role energy plays in its economy and federal budget.
The strategic diversification toward China provides Moscow with leverage over the European Union, enabling it to negotiate better terms and maintain economic and political influence on the global stage. Geopolitically, Russia shares common interests with China in promoting a multi-polar world as an alternative to the U.S.-dominated unipolar order. The rapid economic growth of China and its increasing energy demand are crucial for Russia’s development plans in Eastern Siberia and the Far East, aligning with its recent foreign policy strategy of “pivoting towards the East.”
Despite its economic and strategic interests in the region, Russia maintains a neutral stance on sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea. It refrains from taking sides in these disputes and seeks to uphold its close ties with the South East Asian nations. Russia’s engagement in the South China Sea potentially impacts its economic situation, especially if Moscow becomes overly dependent on China, which could potentially compromise its stance on regional issues.
While Russia’s direct stakes in the region may be limited compared to other major players, its energy cooperation with China and broader geopolitical considerations contribute to its engagement and strategic positioning in the Asia-Pacific.
Why South China Sea matters?
The South China Sea is viewed by major powers as a critical nexus of geopolitical dynamics and competition among regional players. Its abundant fishery resources, contributing to 12% of the world’s total fish catch, and substantial reserves of oil and natural gas are seen as vital for sustaining livelihoods and economic growth in the region. Beyond its economic significance, the South China Sea serves as a crucial global maritime thoroughfare, facilitating over one-third of international maritime traffic valued more than $3 trillion annually. This strategic position connects major economies across Asia with markets in Europe, Africa, and the Americas, making it a focal point for competing territorial claims and overlapping maritime jurisdictions.
Historical disputes over sovereignty among countries like China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan have added layers of complexity to the South China Sea’s geopolitical landscape. These disputes, rooted in centuries of historical interpretations and national pride, have created a web of tensions intertwined with strategic advantages.
Recent incidents, like the confrontation between a Chinese coast guard vessel and a Philippine ship, signifies the persistent strain and unpredictability in the South China Sea. This episode highlights the close ties between the Chinese armed forces and maritime militia, revealing China’s strategic orientation and the heightened risks in the maritime domain.
In assessing the likelihood of conflict between the South China Sea and Taiwan, major powers recognize distinct dynamics within East Asian geopolitics. The Taiwan issue, characterized by cautious diplomacy and strategic restraint aimed at maintaining a status quo, contrasts with the South China Sea’s more volatile and unpredictable scenario. The overlapping territorial claims, strategic interests, and China’s assertive military actions contribute to a tense and complex environment prone to escalation, as evidenced by recent incidents like the confrontation between China and the Philippines.
Complicating the situation are various interests and alliances, including treaty obligations like the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951 with the Philippines, which further complicate dynamics in the South China Sea and heighten the risk of accidental escalation or deliberate provocation. Major powers acknowledge that while the Taiwan issue has been managed through strategic restraint and international pressure, the South China Sea, with its diverse actors and conflicting interests, presents a higher likelihood of conflict.
Given the high stakes involved, major powers emphasize the imperative of preventive measures. These should include diplomatic engagement, confidence-building measures to enhance transparency and communication, adherence to international norms like the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and strengthened regional collaboration to encourage peaceful dispute resolution.
Additionally, from a U.S. perspective, the South China Sea is vital across three key areas: economic, defense ties with allies, and implications for the global power balance. Economically, the sea-lanes passing through the South China Sea are critical for global shipping and significant trade. Defensively, the U.S. maintains alliances and security partnerships with key Asian nations, with regular naval patrols in the region. Most importantly, the South China Sea represents a crucial test of the rules-based international order supported by U.S. power. The contest over the South China Sea represents a critical battleground for competing geopolitical paradigms that will significantly shape the trajectory of the 21st-century world.
Analysis
How Lumbia Air Base in Cagayan de Oro is Important for the Philippines?
In the heart of Northern Mindanao, where strategic interests and regional security converge, lies a key installation often overshadowed by its more famous counterparts—Lumbia Air Base. This seemingly unremarkable airstrip has quietly evolved from its modest beginnings into a crucial hub for military operations in Mindanao. As tensions and conflicts shape the landscape of the region, the significance of Lumbia Air Base becomes increasingly apparent. What makes this base so essential, and how does its history and strategic location contribute to its current role? Let us dive into the story of Lumbia Air Base to uncover its vital role in the ever-changing dynamics of regional security.
A Brief
Even though Lumbia Air Base was first built as a civilian airfield, it has changed significantly over time. It was repurposed to fit military purposes. This change was a component of a larger initiative to expand the Philippine military’s operational reach and capabilities in the area.
Strategically situated in Northern Mindanao, Lumbia Air Base is situated near Cagayan de Oro, Misamis Oriental. This facility’s central location within the Mindanao area makes it essential for coordinating military activities throughout the region. The facility is a vital tool for the Philippine military in preserving regional peace and stability because of its strategic location, which enables it to efficiently support both defensive and logistical operations.
Historical Background
Lumbia Air Base, originally established during the American occupation of the Philippines in the early 1940s, has a storied history. The airfield, initially known as Lumbia Airfield, was constructed to support regional aviation needs. During World War II, it played a significant role in various military operations, and provided crucial logistical support in the region.
After the war, Lumbia underwent extensive reconstruction and modernization. These efforts were aimed at upgrading its facilities and expanding its capabilities. By the late 1950s and early 1960s, the airfield transitioned from its initial civilian role to become a dedicated military air base.
Strategic Importance
As the operational headquarters for the 15th Strike Wing of the Philippine Air Force, Lumbia Air Base plays a crucial role in the military landscape of the Philippines. In order to sustain both regional stability and national security, this wing is responsible for providing tactical and ground air support throughout the nation. The presence of the 15th Strike Wing in Lumbia, which is based at the Danilo Atienza Air Base at Sangley Point, Cavite, greatly expands the Philippine Air Force’s operational reach and efficacy.
The significance of the site is further highlighted by the April 28, 2014, signing of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). By permitting the rotational presence of American troops in “agreed locations” around the Philippines, this agreement was intended to strengthen security cooperation between the United States and the Philippines. Lumbia Air Base was named as one of the principal locations for US military operations under EDCA. This partnership has been strengthened by recent advances, despite some implementation delays and difficulties. The Philippines and the United States expanded the EDCA to encompass more sites in 2023, which is noteworthy since it improved their combined military capability and strategic placement.
Recent cooperative efforts and joint exercises under EDCA have brought the base’s strategic importance to light. For example, the 2024 Balikatan military exercises featured over 16,000 participants from the United States, the Philippines, and allies, demonstrating cutting edge interoperability and training.
Current Operations and Facilities
Lumbia Air Base, a crucial component of the Philippine Air Force (PAF) network, boasts an exceptional runway and airfield capable of supporting a wide array of military activities. Once serving civilian flights until 2013, it now operates solely for military purposes, signifying its strategic significance. Ongoing renovations and expansions of the runway are set to accommodate more aircraft and boost operational capabilities. These improvements align with broader modernization efforts under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the United States, addressing growing regional security demands, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.
The 15th Strike Wing, stationed at Lumbia Air Base, plays a pivotal role in both regional security and national defense. On May 17, 2024, the Philippine Air Force welcomed the final two of six Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) T-129 ‘Atak’ helicopters, tail numbers 1505 and 1506, at Major Danilo Atienza Air Base in Cavite. This acquisition, part of the Horizon 2 phase of the AFP Modernization Program, stems from a $269 million government-to-government agreement with Turkey.
Renowned for their versatility in various operational conditions, the T-129 ‘Atak’ helicopters are expected to significantly enhance the air force’s capabilities in urban warfare, aerial reconnaissance, and counter-insurgency operations. These twin-engine helicopters come equipped with advanced fire support technologies, precise weaponry, and state-of-the-art observation and targeting systems. Following technical checks completed upon their arrival in the Philippines on November 29, 2023, the helicopters were officially commissioned in May 2024.
These developments underscore the Philippines’ commitment to bolstering national defense and enhancing interoperability with allied forces. The ongoing infrastructure upgrades at Lumbia Air Base reflect a strategic focus on defending territorial claims and improving defense readiness, particularly in response to rising tensions in the South China Sea and surrounding regions.
Geopolitical Context
The security issues in Mindanao are critical given the geopolitical setting of the Philippines. Insurgency and terrorism continue to pose serious risks to the region. The Marawi Siege in 2017, which witnessed fierce urban combat between militants connected with the Islamic State (IS) and Philippine government troops, is one of the noteworthy instances involving the IS’s increased activity.
As of 2024, the Philippine government continues to place a high priority on counterterrorism and counterinsurgency efforts. The Philippine Armed Forces (AFP) are still carrying out massive operations to break up terrorist networks and put an end to insurgency.
The Philippines has increased its collaboration with both regional and international partners in response to these threats. The country’s counterterrorism and counterinsurgency capabilities have been strengthened thanks in large part to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the United States. The United States offers training, intelligence sharing, and logistical support, all of which greatly improve the AFP’s operational efficacy.
The Philippines’ connections and alliances are vital in determining security dynamics in the region. In order to handle cross-border security challenges and improve regional stability, cooperation with ASEAN has been essential. By giving member states a forum to exchange intelligence and coordinate responses to extremist threats, the ASEAN regional framework promotes cooperation on counterterrorism initiatives and disaster relief efforts.
Beyond ASEAN, the Philippines interact with other international allies. The nation’s strategic alliances with countries like the United States, Australia, and Japan reinforce a wider security net that upholds peace and stability in the area.
Future Prospects
The strategic aims and regional aspirations of the Philippines position it for notable gains in both military prowess and infrastructure.
The nation is concentrating on significant infrastructure expansions and upgrades in 2024 as part of a larger economic and security plan. The construction of military facilities and transportation networks are important initiatives that will improve both the defense and civilian infrastructure. It is anticipated that the new $6 billion infrastructure investment plan will improve connectivity and update vital transportation linkages, promoting economic expansion and strategic mobility.
Through the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), the Philippines is looking into possibilities for a larger U.S. military deployment. This entails increasing the number of cooperative training and exercise sessions as well as possibly enhancing the infrastructure to accommodate a greater number of US soldiers. Notably, the expanding strategic alliance between the United States and the Philippines is reflected in the joint drills, which have been expanded to incorporate more difficult scenarios near contentious locations like the South China Sea. Training sessions like the Balikatan drills, which assessed tactical integration and endurance, demonstrate the continuous dedication to enhancing defense capabilities.
The Philippines’ developing strategic posture is intimately linked to its long-term objectives for maintaining regional stability. The nation seeks to manage its complex relationships with its neighbors, especially China, while enhancing its defense capabilities and regional influence. The Philippines is attempting to strike a balance between its security requirements and diplomatic commitments while tensions in the South China Sea continue. Enhancing defense readiness and taking part in regional security frameworks are part of the strategic aim to guarantee a stable and secure marine environment.
Furthermore, the Philippines is dedicated to maintaining a balance in its relations with its neighbors by participating in multilateral agreements and strategic alliances. The necessity of regional cooperation in accomplishing sustainable development goals and upholding peace is emphasized in the UN Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework for 2024–2028. The strategic perspective of the Philippines involves utilizing these global alliances to advance stability and proficiently handle crises within the region.
End Point
Lumbia Air Base exemplifies the Philippines’ strategic approach to increase its defense infrastructure and regional security, with its sophisticated runway and airfield playing a critical role in military operations. The ongoing modernization initiatives, driven by the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States, reflect the nation’s commitment to strengthening its defense posture and operational readiness. Looking ahead, the future of Lumbia Air Base and the Philippines’ broader defense strategy will be shaped by evolving regional dynamics and strategic alliances, with a continued emphasis on infrastructure development and enhanced military cooperation with international partners, solidifying the Philippines’ position in the Indo-Pacific region.
Analysis
Does China Claim Malaysia’s Luconia Shoals?
China and Malaysia’s historical interactions stretch back to the ancient maritime Silk Road, with the Malacca Sultanate establishing early diplomatic and trade relations with the Ming Dynasty in the 15th century. The formal diplomatic relationship between the two nations was established in 1974, marking a significant step in their modern partnership. This relationship has evolved into a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, emphasizing economic, political, and cultural cooperation. However, tensions remain, particularly over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. China’s expansive claims, represented by the controversial nine-dash line, include areas such as the Luconia Shoals, which fall within Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone. Despite these disputes, both countries strive to manage their differences through diplomacy while safeguarding their respective national interests.
China Malaysia Ties: An Overview
The relationship between China and Malaysia has deep historical roots, extending back centuries through early trade and cultural exchanges. Chinese records from the 5th and 6th centuries AD mention the presence of Malay sailors in China, signifying the long-standing interactions between the two regions. During the Ming Dynasty, the Sultanate of Malacca established close political and economic ties with China, benefiting from the Ming dynasty’s protection. These early interactions laid the foundation for the modern diplomatic relations that were formally established in May 1974. After the Cold War, ties between China and Malaysia strengthened significantly, especially after the Communist Party of Malaya ended its insurgency in 1989.
Economically, China and Malaysia share a robust partnership. Since 2009, China has been Malaysia’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching US$98.90 billion in 2023. Malaysia is also a key participant in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with notable projects like the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) and the Malaysia-China Kuantan Industrial Park reflecting their strong economic ties. Malaysia, exports a variety of goods to China, including palm oil, electronics, and natural gas, highlighting the interconnected nature of their economies. In 2024, the two countries renewed a five-year economic cooperation agreement, focusing on trade, investment, agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure, and financial services, further solidifying their partnership.
Politically, China and Malaysia maintain a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, established in 2013, which emphasizes mutual respect and understanding. Frequent high-level visits have reinforced diplomatic ties, such as Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Malaysia in 2024, which resulted in a joint statement and several memoranda of understanding (MOUs). However, despite their close cooperation, tensions occasionally arise due to overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea. While these disputes have caused friction, both countries remain committed to resolving issues through bilateral discussions.
Culturally, Malaysia’s significant Chinese diaspora, the second-largest in the world, has played a key role in shaping the nation’s social and cultural fabric. Educational and cultural exchanges between the two nations are also robust, with programs fostering greater understanding and collaboration. Malaysia’s large Chinese community significantly contributes to the country’s cultural landscape, while educational programs encourage mutual understanding. Many Malaysian students pursue higher education in China, and numerous Chinese students study in Malaysia, creating valuable people-to-people ties.
Diplomatically, China and Malaysia have maintained a stable and cooperative relationship, working together on regional and international issues. Both countries are actively involved in trade agreements and infrastructure projects, particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Malaysia has benefited from increased connectivity and infrastructure development through its involvement in the BRI, demonstrating the strategic nature of its relationship with China.
Despite the strong ties, tensions over the South China Sea continue to pose challenges. China’s claims, based on the “nine-dash line,” overlap with Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), leading to disputes over maritime boundaries and resource exploration. These disagreements have occasionally strained relations but have not derailed overall cooperation.
Recent developments in the South China Sea have brought the issue to the forefront. Malaysia continues its oil and gas exploration activities in the region despite objections from China. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has reaffirmed Malaysia’s stance, emphasizing that these activities are within its waters and are crucial for the country’s economic interests. China has protested these activities through diplomatic notes, but Malaysia remains firm, citing its sovereign rights and adherence to international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
A recent leak of a classified diplomatic note from China, which warned Malaysia to halt its oil drilling activities, has further strained relations. Despite this, both countries have committed to resolving the dispute peacefully, emphasizing the importance of maintaining their broader relationship.
Does China Claim Luconia Shoal?
The Luconia Shoals, also known as the Luconia Reefs, are situated approximately 100 kilometers off the coast of Sarawak, Malaysia, within Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The shoals are part of a larger reef complex in the South China Sea and are sometimes considered the southernmost part of the Spratly Islands.
These shoals hold significant strategic importance due to their rich marine biodiversity and potential underwater resources, such as oil and natural gas. This makes the area valuable for both economic and strategic reasons.
China claims the Luconia Shoals as part of its broader claim over the South China Sea, delineated by the “nine-dash line.” This line encompasses nearly the entire South China Sea, including regions that fall within the EEZs of other countries, such as Malaysia.
Recent developments have intensified tensions in the region. China has repeatedly protested Malaysia’s oil and gas exploration activities in the Luconia Shoals. A recent incident involved a leaked Chinese diplomatic note urging Malaysia to cease its exploration activities, asserting that they infringe on Chinese sovereignty. Additionally, China has increased its military presence in the area, exemplified by the deployment of 16 military aircraft near the Luconia Shoals in 2021, prompting Malaysia to scramble fighter jets in response. The Chinese Coast Guard has also maintained a near-constant patrol around the shoals, signaling China’s intent to assert control over the region without establishing a physical occupation.
In response, Malaysia has consistently asserted that its activities in the Luconia Shoals are within its sovereign rights and comply with international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has emphasized that Malaysia will persist with its exploration activities and will not yield to China’s demands.
What is China’s nine dash line claim?
China’s “nine-dash line” claim asserts sovereignty over a substantial portion of the South China Sea, represented by a U-shaped line that encompasses approximately 90% of the region. This claim stretches as far as 2,000 kilometers from the Chinese mainland, extending close to the shores of several Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei.
The origins of the nine-dash line date back to 1947 when the Republic of China published maps featuring eleven dashes. After the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the number of dashes was revised to nine. China bases its claim on historical usage, asserting that Chinese fishermen and traders have utilized these waters for centuries.
The nine-dash line is highly controversial and has been the subject of significant international disputes. A key point of contention is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which defines territorial waters, exclusive economic zones (EEZs), and continental shelves. Many countries argue that China’s claim violates UNCLOS by overlapping with their EEZs and territorial waters. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines, declaring that China’s claims have no legal basis under international law. China rejected this ruling, straightaway.
The claim has led to heightened tensions and confrontations in the South China Sea, involving not only the claimant states but also external powers like the United States. The U.S. conducts freedom of navigation operations in the region to challenge China’s claims.
China’s Classified diplomatic note to Malaysia over oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea
A recently leaked classified diplomatic note from China to Malaysia has revealed Beijing’s strong opposition to Malaysia’s oil and gas exploration activities in the South China Sea. In the note, China accused Malaysia of encroaching on areas covered by its controversial 10-dash line map, which claims nearly the entire South China Sea. The document specifically referenced Malaysia’s activities near the Luconia Shoals, located close to the Malaysian state of Sarawak.
In response, Malaysia has firmly stated that it will not yield to China’s demands and will continue its exploration efforts, maintaining that these activities are taking place within its own waters. The Malaysian government has also called for an investigation into the leak of the classified document. This signifies the complex territorial disputes in the South China Sea, where multiple countries, including Malaysia, have overlapping claims with China.
Will Malaysia continue South China Sea exploration?
On September 5, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim affirmed that Malaysia will continue its oil and gas exploration activities in the South China Sea, despite a recently leaked diplomatic document revealing opposition from Beijing. Anwar emphasized that Malaysia’s exploration efforts are well within its own waters and that both countries would address the issue through amicable discussions.
Malaysia’s state-run oil company, Petronas, operates oil and gas fields within the country’s exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. Despite an international court ruling that dismissed China’s claim as having no legal basis, Beijing continues to assert ownership over almost the entire South China Sea, a vital region for global trade and economic resources.
In a press conference broadcast live on Malaysian television, Anwar reiterated that Malaysia’s actions were neither provocative nor hostile. He described China as a “great friend” but made it clear that Malaysia must continue to secure its economic interests, which include oil drilling within its territorial waters. He stressed that halting exploration activities would not be an option, as they are crucial to Malaysia’s economic survival.
The controversy stems from a leaked diplomatic note, reportedly published by the Philippine news outlet Inquirer.net, in which China demanded that Malaysia stop its oil and gas activities near the state of Sarawak on Borneo island. While Malaysia’s foreign ministry has launched an investigation into the leak, it has not denied the authenticity of the document.
Anwar expressed openness to dialogue with China to resolve the matter, highlighting that any disputes should not undermine the strong bilateral relationship between the two nations. He also pointed out that continued engagement is necessary, but this does not mean Malaysia will stop its exploration activities.
The South China Sea has become a regional flashpoint, with frequent confrontations between China and other claimant countries like the Philippines. Analysts fear that rising tensions in the area could potentially involve larger powers, such as the United States, due to mutual defense treaties with regional allies like the Philippines.
What are challenges, roadblocks, and the Way ahead?
The relationship between China and Malaysia has deep historical roots, dating back centuries through trade and cultural exchanges. Chinese records from the 5th and 6th centuries mention Malay sailors in China, highlighting the long-standing connections between the two regions. During the Ming Dynasty, the Sultanate of Malacca established close ties with China, benefiting from the protection of the Ming court. These early interactions laid the groundwork for modern diplomatic relations, formally established in May 1974. In the post-Cold War period, ties between the two nations strengthened significantly, especially after the end of the Communist Party of Malaya’s insurgency in 1989.
Economically, China and Malaysia have developed a robust partnership. Since 2009, China has been Malaysia’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching RM450.84 billion (US$98.90 billion) in 2023. Malaysia plays a key role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with major projects like the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) and the Malaysia-China Kuantan Industrial Park reflecting their strong economic cooperation. In 2024, the two countries renewed a five-year economic cooperation agreement that focuses on trade, investment, agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure, and financial services, further solidifying their economic ties.
Politically, China and Malaysia maintain a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, established in 2013, based on mutual respect and understanding. Frequent high-level visits, such as Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Malaysia in 2024, have strengthened diplomatic ties. However, despite close cooperation, tensions arise due to overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea. While these disputes have caused friction, both countries remain committed to resolving issues through bilateral discussions.
Culturally, Malaysia’s significant Chinese diaspora has played an essential role in shaping the nation’s social and cultural fabric. Educational and cultural exchanges between the two nations are strong, with programs that foster greater understanding and collaboration. Many Malaysian students study in China, and vice versa, enhancing people-to-people connections and mutual understanding. However, while economic ties between China and Malaysia are strong, challenges persist. Malaysia seeks to balance its economic dependence on China with its national interests and sovereignty, especially regarding the South China Sea dispute. The evolving geopolitical landscape in Southeast Asia, influenced by other major powers, presents additional challenges and opportunities for both countries.
China’s “nine-dash line” claim asserts sovereignty over a substantial portion of the South China Sea, a region rich in natural resources and strategic shipping lanes. The claim, represented by a U-shaped line, encompasses about 90% of the sea, extending close to the shores of Southeast Asian nations like Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. The origins of this claim date back to 1947 when the Republic of China published maps with eleven dashes. After the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the number of dashes was reduced to nine. China bases its claim on historical usage, asserting that Chinese fishermen and traders have used these waters for centuries.
The nine-dash line is highly controversial and has led to significant international disputes. A major point of contention is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which defines territorial waters and exclusive economic zones (EEZs). Many countries argue that China’s claim violates UNCLOS by overlapping with their EEZs. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines, stating that China’s claims had no legal basis under international law. Despite the ruling, China has continued to assert its claims.
China has protested Malaysia’s oil and gas exploration activities in the Luconia Shoals, leading to diplomatic tensions. In one recent incident, a leaked Chinese diplomatic note urged Malaysia to halt its exploration activities, claiming they infringed on Chinese sovereignty. China has also increased its military presence in the area, including sending 16 military aircraft near the shoals in 2021, which led Malaysia to scramble its fighter jets. Despite these protests, Malaysia has consistently maintained that its activities in the area are within its sovereign rights under international law, specifically UNCLOS. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has affirmed that Malaysia will continue its exploration activities, refusing to yield to China’s demands.
End Note
In essence, while China and Malaysia share deep-rooted historical, economic, and cultural ties, their relationship faces ongoing challenges, particularly concerning territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The contested claims, especially over areas like the Luconia Shoals, highlight the tension between China’s expansive nine-dash line and Malaysia’s sovereign rights under international law. Despite these disputes, both nations continue to engage in diplomatic efforts, emphasizing dialogue and cooperation, even as Malaysia remains resolute in pursuing its oil and gas exploration activities critical to its economic interests. The evolving geopolitical dynamics in the region will continue to shape the future of this relationship.
Analysis
Malaysia to Investigate Leaked Classified Chinese Note on South China Sea Dispute
Malaysia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has launched an internal probe into the leak of a classified diplomatic note sent by China concerning oil exploration activities in the South China Sea. The move follows an article published by the Philippine Daily Inquirer on August 29, which detailed the contents of the confidential communication. The Malaysian government expressed grave concern over the breach, as the document constitutes an official communication channel between Beijing and Kuala Lumpur.
Background
In February 2024, China sent a classified diplomatic note to Malaysia, expressing concerns over Malaysia’s oil and gas exploration activities in the South China Sea. This note was leaked by the Philippine Daily Inquirer on August 29, 2024, drawing attention to ongoing regional tensions. The focus of China’s concern was Malaysia’s exploration near the Luconia Shoals, an area situated roughly 100 kilometers off the Malaysian state of Sarawak. While Malaysia asserts its rights to this region, China claims the area under its controversial nine-dash line, which covers nearly the entire South China Sea.
The diplomatic note highlights China’s longstanding claim over the South China Sea and highlights Beijing’s opposition to Malaysia’s exploration activities. According to the document, these activities infringe upon China’s territorial claims, and the note urges Malaysia to halt its operations immediately. This is not the first time such concerns have been raised, but the leak has brought the issue into sharper focus, putting additional strain on the diplomatic relations between the two nations.
Malaysia’s response to the leak has been swift. The country’s Foreign Ministry has initiated a police investigation into how the document was made public and launched an internal probe. Malaysia’s stance remains firm, with officials emphasizing that the country will continue to protect its sovereignty and pursue its interests in its maritime areas, in accordance with international law, specifically the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim further reinforced this position, stating that Malaysia will persist with its oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea despite the concerns raised by China. This development reflects the broader regional dynamics, as Malaysia, along with the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan, all have overlapping claims in the South China Sea, making the area a significant flashpoint for international relations.
Recent Developments
The leaked diplomatic note highlights the sensitive and contentious nature of the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. It also sheds light on the careful balancing act Malaysia is attempting, as it seeks to assert its rights in the region while managing its diplomatic ties with China.
In its statement released on Wednesday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed it is conducting an internal investigation and will be filing a police report to further scrutinize the incident. While the ministry refrained from naming the Philippine media outlet or verifying the authenticity of the note, it emphasized the need for swift action to prevent further leaks of classified materials.
Malaysia Urged to Halt All activities in the South China Sea by China
The note in question reportedly urged Malaysia to halt all oil exploration and drilling operations in the Luconia Shoals, a resource-rich area located about 100 kilometers off the coast of Sarawak. According to the Inquirer, China claimed that Malaysia’s activities in the region violated its sovereignty under the controversial nine-dash line. China’s nearest landmass, Hainan Island, is situated approximately 1,300 kilometers from the disputed shoals.
The South China Sea dispute involves competing claims from multiple nations, including Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan. China claims nearly the entire sea based on historical maps, despite a 2016 international arbitration ruling that dismissed the nine-dash line as legally baseless. Malaysia, while sharing strong economic ties with China, has now become entangled in the broader geopolitical tensions over control of these vital waters.
Malaysia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reaffirmed its stance on the South China Sea, pledging to defend its sovereignty and interests in accordance with international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The ministry noted that while Malaysia seeks peaceful resolution through dialogue, the country will remain firm in protecting its maritime rights.
Beijing has not commented on the leaked note. However, diplomatic tensions have flared in recent months, with China’s aggressive presence in the South China Sea leading to repeated confrontations, especially with the Philippines. Just this year, multiple stand-offs occurred between Chinese and Philippine coastguards near Second Thomas Shoal.
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has maintained a more diplomatic approach toward Beijing, stressing the importance of balancing national interests with regional stability. However, the leak has raised concerns about Malaysia’s ability to maintain this balancing act amid increasing pressure from China. Anwar has acknowledged China’s concerns over Malaysia’s energy activities but remains open to negotiations on resolving maritime disputes.
This incident marks the second time in recent months that China’s activities in the South China Sea have drawn public attention in Malaysia. Earlier this year, a standoff between Malaysian state oil company Petronas and Chinese vessels occurred near the same contested waters. Chinese survey ships have increasingly patrolled the area, challenging Malaysia’s economic activities within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
Despite these challenges, Malaysia’s foreign ministry highlighted that Kuala Lumpur and Beijing have committed to handling the South China Sea dispute diplomatically. Both nations co-chair discussions within the ASEAN framework aimed at reaching a Code of Conduct (COC) for the region, with negotiations expected to finalize in the coming years.
China’s claims over the South China Sea are based on the nine-dash line, a boundary dating back to 1947. However, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in 2016 that this claim had no merit under international law, siding with the Philippines. China has disregarded the ruling, continuing to assert its claims through military and diplomatic means.
Malaysia’s role in the dispute is further complicated by its reliance on China as its largest trading partner. Since 2009, bilateral relations between the two nations have strengthened, even as Malaysia faced pressure from the international community to stand firm against Chinese encroachment on its EEZ.
The Luconia Shoals, where the recent conflict has surfaced, are located within Malaysia’s EEZ, recognized by UNCLOS. However, China’s claim extends beyond its geographic proximity, relying on historical maps to justify its territorial ambitions in the South China Sea.
While the dispute escalates, Malaysia’s foreign ministry reiterated that its focus remains on diplomatic engagement. The government has called on all nations involved to respect the principles of peaceful negotiation and avoid any actions that could lead to violence or further escalation in the region.
End Note
The leak of China’s diplomatic note adds complexity to Malaysia’s foreign policy strategy, as it seeks to maintain both economic ties with China and its sovereign rights in the contested waters. Analysts believe that Malaysia’s next steps will be closely watched, both by regional partners and global powers like the United States.
Malaysia remains engaged in ASEAN-led efforts to establish a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea, aimed at reducing tensions and fostering long-term peace.
The investigation into the leak is ongoing, with the Malaysian government prioritizing both national security and diplomatic engagement with China. As tensions persist, Malaysia faces the challenge of navigating its position in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.
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